Jon’s predictions
Subscription content
If publishers, like News Corp, can find a better way of monetising their content it has to good for the long term. 10 years ago the industry had a dramatic wakeup call, there’s a lot being given away for free right now but it can’t last without impacting the quality of content or products. We should find out next year whether subscriptions are the way forward.What actually happened?
News Corp steamed ahead and introduced a paywall on
The Times online and their
News of the World site. According to ComScore NofTW has had a 40% drop in visitors since the introduction of the paywall. However, it is still early to say what the overall impact will be and whether other companies will follow suit.
Flash CS5 exporting iPhone Apps
Adobe’s CS5 release will allow ActionScript 3 developers to produce iPhoneApps. This means a bunch of developers will instantly be able to produce iPhone apps. As iPhone Apps have to be approved by Apple it will be interesting to see how their Developer Program will cope.What actually happened?
It was a case of a very sour Apple, they changed their terms just before CS5 was launched and traded some open letters with Adobe. Apple have now recently removed the clause which prevented Flash being used to author Apps but it's too soon to tell the real impact.
Tim’s predictions
HTML 5
Whether we’ll see a finalised spec and full browser support for the implementation of HTML 5 in 2010 remains to be seen but some of the features are looking really exciting. The canvas element for drawing graphics on the fly has hugely exciting possibilities, as well as client side storage, video & audio support & semantic mark up enhancements there’s lots to look forward too.What actually happened?
There's been plenty to get excited about with HTML5 over the last year with what seemed like new boundary pushing demos appearing every week. The big players all jumped on board with Microsoft announcing IE9 (
http://ie.microsoft.com/testdrive/), Apple producing some technical demos to show off Safari (
http://www.apple.com/html5/), and Google teaming up with the Arcade Fire (
http://www.thewildernessdowntown.com/). In reality though, we still have to restrain ourselves a little and remember that the latest browser technology is often not being used by people. This leads nicely on to Tim’s next prediction.
IE6
While many of us hoped that the life support machine for IE6 would have been switched off by now, Microsoft’s announcement back in August this year meant we’ve got another few years of challenging backwards compatibility testing ahead of us. Now there’s something to look forward to in 2010 and beyond.What actually happened?
While many users have now upgraded beyond IE6, the fact remains that there are still a lot of companies out there who've invested greatly in applications which rely on the prehistoric browser. While there seems to be an accepted trend within the industry that IE6 support is moving towards an exception and not a rule, it's still incredibly hard to ignore the fact that you could be turning your back on a huge number of users by ignoring the browser completely.
James’s Predictions
Flash on mobiles
Whilst Apple takes a stand against Flash, other rival operating systems are looking to enable it on their handsets in 2010. First up will be Palm’s Web OS probably following by Google’s Android and the Windows Mobile. This will mean that lots of handsets will have the full web available to them and we are likely to see a shift towards surfing on the phone. Potential problems are battery life and bandwidth problems. What actually happened?
Well it happened just not in the order I predicted, WebOS is still waiting for flash, and Android was the first mobile to feature it. It works extremely well; I mainly use it to view videos on the move. Apple has still dug its heels in and having access to flash has set Android apart from the iOS.
Apple tablet
The much rumoured, mocked up and very secret Apple Tablet I’m predicting will appear this year. There have been lots of mock ups of sites running on a tablet. Apple have demonstrated that they can make a lot of money form a mobile app store, so it would make good business sense to have one for a tablet. This may mean that Apple will create a closed system, which means the tablet could be a lot less flexible than a laptop/PC. It’s all pure speculation at the moment, lots of people have spent most of 2009 speculating, but hopefully Apple will do a reveal and we’ll be able to buy/use/develop for it.What actually happened?
I was pretty much spot on for this, right down to the closed off nature of the app store. At first I was a little underwhelmed by the announcement, but now using one it's actually got a lot of uses I didn't imagine. Magazines haven't been the killer apps the publishers would have hoped yet, lots of them coming under fire for being such big downloads. Adobe are pushing to be the default platform, and iGizmo is a good example of what they can do at present.
Danielle’s Predictions
Mobile payments
'Square', the new mobile payment system from Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey announced its private beta earlier this month. Square enables merchants to accept payments via the Apple iPhone and is set to roll out 'to everyone' early next year. With old payment technologies proving cumbersome in comparison (or being phased out altogether like the cheque) 2010 could see a massive growth in mobile payment systems.What actually happened?
Mobile payments was a no-go for this year. Visa have rolled out mobile payments on New York's subway system (iPhone & PayWave), and Nokia are fitting their smart phones with mobile payment chips next year, but there has not been news of any plans on this side of the pond as yet.
Ceri’s Predictions
Google phone, Android and Windows Mobile 7
The rumours of the first Google mobile phone are no doubt causing mild palpitations at Apple HQ. Google’s Android operating system is already proving to be the hottest thing since sliced bread with dozens of new Android handsets promised in the first half of 2010. Microsoft will be hoping they can regain some ground with their long overdue operating system Windows Mobile 7, and I don’t expect Apple will be resting on its iPhone laurels either. 2010 promises to be an exciting year for smartphones and mobile web browsing.What actually happened?
As predicted, Google launched their “Nexus One” mobile at the start of 2010, helping cement the runaway success of their Android mobile operating system. Android continues to go from strength to strength, though some analysts are starting to question whether Android could become a victim of its own success, already experiencing platform fragmentation issues due to its aggressive release frequency. One thing’s for sure, Android is unlikely to stagnate as we move into 2011.
Elsewhere, Windows 7 was generally well received, though it may be a case of too little, too late for Microsoft. Perhaps deals with major hardware suppliers will improve this in 2011. And Apple shows no signs of being left behind, releasing version 4 of their ubiquitous iPhone.
All of this has reinforced the trend away from desktop browsing and towards mobile web browsing devices, be they phones, tablets, or who knows what next!
Silverlight 4
We’re already up to version 4 of Microsoft’s take on Flash (though I don’t think the folks at Redmond like to hear Silverlight described that way!) Until now there’s been no sign of Silverlight upsetting Flash’s position as the ubiquitous technology in this space, but with the hotly anticipated version 4 just around the corner, 2010 might just be the year that Silverlight comes of age.What actually happened?
2010 saw the final version of Silverlight 4 released to market, and its impact on the wider web has been minimal. Certainly not the Flash killer many were predicting. More interestingly, towards the end of 2010 Microsoft announced that they would be changing the focus of Silverlight development away from the web – an area where they see HTML5 dominating – and will instead be pushing Silverlight in the direction of mobile and embedded operating systems. So while your favourite website may not be using Silverlight today, don’t be surprised to see it popping up tomorrow on your phone, games console, media server, etc.
Chrome OS
Web browser as operating system? For me personally this feels like a step backwards in time, not forward. Anyone remember dumb terminals and mainframes? No? Anyone? Ok, just me then. But if anyone can pull it off its Google, so I’ll be keeping my eye on this. If nothing else it might result in increased usage of Google’s Chrome web browser – yet another platform to test against!What actually happened?
No sign of the Chrome OS in 2010. Though Google’s Chrome web browser has had a bigger impact than many predicted. Chrome OS is still in development, and promised for 2011, so watch this space…
Come back next week to find out what our predictions for 2011 will be....